Measuring the U.S. Economy
The best way to estimate the size of the U.S. economy is with gross domestic product, or GDP. GDP measures everything produced in the United States, regardless of whether it was made by U.S. citizens and companies or by foreigners.
Components of GDP
There are four components of GDP. Government spending is the second-largest component, driving approximately 18% of GDP. This includes national defense spending, Social Security benefits, and health care. It also includes state and municipal budgets. Business investment makes up approximately 16% of GDP. It includes such elements as manufacturing, real estate construction, and intellectual property. Net exports make up the fourth component. It is the sum of exports, which add to the nation’s economy, and imports, which subtract from it. The United States has a trade deficit, which means it imports more than it exports. This is why the U.S. net exports figure has a negative value.
Measuring GDP
There are three critical measurements of GDP.
Forces That Affect the U.S. Economy
Three forces affect the economy: supply and demand, the business cycle, and inflation. These are measures of how consumers interact with their money and the economy. You can learn how to predict the next recession by understanding how these forces interact with each other and affect consumer behavior.
Supply and Demand
Demand is how much consumers want a good or service. Supply is how much of that good or service is available. The interaction between supply and demand affects prices, wages, and the amount of product available. The law of supply and demand says that supply will rise or fall to meet levels of demand over time. If consumers want more of something, businesses will make more of it until supply meets demand and demand decreases. This process is cyclical. Supply is limited by the four factors of production: labor, entrepreneurship, capital, and natural resources. Demand is limited by the consumer’s willingness to pay the price of a product or service.
The Business Cycle
The economy is constantly changing, and its rise and fall depend on the business cycle. The cycle has four phases.
Inflation and Deflation
Inflation can happen either in the short term, due to consumer behavior, or in the long term. Short-term inflation happens when demand is greater than supply and prices go up. It generally occurs in the peak phase of the business cycle. Once inflation occurs, people begin to expect ever-higher prices. Consumers buy now before prices go up more in the future. This increases demand and causes higher prices. Long-term inflation generally happens because of an increase in the money supply over time.
Government Influences on the Economy
In a mixed economy like the United States, the government has a few tools it can use to influence the economy.
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy is how the government adjusts its own spending and tax rates to influence or manage economic forces. Congress, with the influence of the president, sets the federal budget. The highest portion of federal spending goes toward Social Security benefits, military spending, and Medicare. Fiscal policy can also influence entire industries through its priorities, such as whether it focuses on renewable energy or fossil fuels. Revenue for the federal budget comes from taxes and money that the federal government borrows. But spending is limited. When it outpaces revenue, it creates a budget deficit.
Trade Policy
Another government tool is trade policy. By regulating trade with other countries, the government affects the cost of imports and exports. The cost of imports affects the prices of goods and services that are imported and sold in the United States, while the cost of exports affects the revenue and wages of U.S. businesses.
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank, was created by Congress. Also called the Fed, the Federal Reserve System uses monetary policy to control inflation and stimulate the economy. It is also charged with the smooth functioning of the banking system. There are two types of monetary policy.
Expansionary monetary policy speeds up growth and lowers unemployment. It does that when it lowers interest rates or adds credit to banks to lend, which increases the U.S. money supply. Contractionary monetary policy fights inflation and slows growth. To do this, the Fed raises interest rates or removes credit from banks’ balance sheets. This decreases the money supply.
The Federal Reserve has several monetary policy tools that it uses to affect the economy:
Interest rates: The most well-known tool is the Fed funds rate, which the Federal Open Market Committee adjusts to change interest rates.Open market operations: The Fed also adjusts the money banks have available to lend by buying or selling securities to its member banks. Selling securities causes interest rates to rise, while buying them causes interest rates to fall.Money supply: Adjusting the money supply allows the Fed to manage inflation and influence the unemployment rate.
Business Influences on the Economy
There is another major influencer that is not part of the government: financial markets on Wall Street. The behavior of traders, investors, and managers in financial markets affect the broader economy. Trades through foreign exchange markets change the value of the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies, which affects the price of imports and exports. Hedge funds and hedge fund managers seek higher returns by trading in risky commodities and futures contracts, many of which are minimally regulated. The commodities market is where food, metals, and oil are traded. Commodities traders change the price of these things you buy every day. Bubbles and collapses in the financial, stock, and housing markets can affect the overall economy, causing recessions and depressions.
Understanding the Current Economy
Once you understand how the U.S. economy works, you can use certain indicators to understand both how the economy is currently doing and what might happen in the near future.
How the Economy Is Doing
These five benchmarks indicate how the economy is doing. They are closely watched by economic analysts, Wall Street, and the government.
Predicting What the Economy Will Do
Understanding these leading economic indicators can help you predict likely changes in the U.S. economy.
The durable goods orders report tells you how many orders were received by manufacturers. When orders are high, GDP will increase in the future.
Building permits indicate whether there will be new home construction in the near future.Manufacturing jobs tell you manufacturers’ confidence level. When factory orders rise, companies need more workers right away. That happens long before the goods show up in GDP. Similarly, when manufacturers hire fewer workers, it means a recession could be on its way. Data on manufacturing jobs is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The stock market often predicts what the economy will do in the next six months. That’s because stock traders must research economic trends and business performance to make the most profitable trades possible. Interest rates are how the Fed influences growth. Low interest rates create more liquidity for businesses and consumers. Cheap loans spur demand. Rising interest shrinks the money supply, making loans more expensive and weakening demand.
Use these benchmarks to make informed judgments about how the economy is currently doing and what might happen next. Understanding these signs of growth and contraction will help you manage your money and protect your financial future.
