Using paycheck and benefits data from a financial services provider called Earnin, the researchers compared individual employment, income, and spending levels in 19 of the 22 states that withdrew from federal benefit programs in June against those in 23 states that planned to participate until the programs expire on Sept. 6. The study found the chances of getting a job in the first 19 states were in fact higher, but noted that still only 13% of those who lost unemployment benefits because of their state’s early cutoff found jobs by the first week of August. That, the researchers said, led to a major discrepancy between average unemployment benefits and increased earnings, and overall, spending among the study group fell by an average of $145 a week. Extrapolating from those estimates, researchers theorized that half a million people may find jobs in September and October, but most of the 4 million people who will lose benefits may take much longer, potentially cutting back their spending by $8 billion. Have a question, comment, or story to share? You can reach Helen at hreis@thebalance.com.
